Market Overview: May 2025

We wrapped up our April market review with a cautious yet intriguing forecast: that May, despite its traditionally bearish reputation, could mark a turning point for the crypto market. At the time, it sounded like a hopeful speculation. Now, looking back, we can say that this scenario has indeed begun to play out.

At first glance, May tends to be a neutral month for crypto. Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has ended May in the green six times and in the red six times. Still, it’s generally considered a tough period for the markets. There’s an old saying in financial circles: “Sell in May and go away.” Seasonal weakness and uncertainty rarely favor the bulls.

But in 2025, the market defied expectations. While April was met with anxiety, May brought cautious hope. It had the potential to confirm a bullish reversal — or, alternatively, deepen bearish sentiment. But from the very first days of the month, the crypto market began to show strength. By the end of May, Bitcoin had gained 11%, setting a new all-time high (ATH), while Ethereum — previously underperforming for months — surged 41%, nearly quadrupling Bitcoin’s growth.

May turned out to be not just a month of hope, but a month of confirmation. The market is once again showing belief that crypto isn’t just capable of falling — it can rally, too.

Historical BTC Performance | CoinGlass

In this review, we’ll break down the key developments from the month: the Federal Reserve meeting and its impact on investor sentiment, growing institutional interest in Ethereum led by BlackRock, and the first signs of a potential altseason approaching. We’ll also explore Bitcoin and altcoin dynamics, changes in trading volume, and evolving market sentiment. Finally, we’ll aim to answer the big question: has the market truly reversed — and what could trigger the next phase of growth?

The Fed Meeting: No Surprises, but a Hint of a Shift

The key macro event of the month was the Federal Reserve’s meeting on the 7th of May. As expected, the benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at 4.50%. The market reacted calmly, with almost no immediate volatility. However, the very next day, Bitcoin jumped 6.4% in a single session — indicating that what participants had really been waiting for wasn’t the rate decision itself, but clarity in the Fed’s messaging.

During the press conference, Jerome Powell reaffirmed that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite weaker GDP data. Inflation, while trending downward, is still above target. The labor market is balanced, with no significant wage growth — meaning no immediate risks from employment pressures. Powell also mentioned rising uncertainty related to international trade and the new administration’s policy direction. He refrained from promising rate cuts anytime soon but emphasized that the Fed is ready to respond swiftly if conditions change.

Overall, the Fed’s tone was firmly neutral. Still, for the market, even the absence of bad news was enough to spark optimism. Investors took this as a signal that further tightening is unlikely — and that a policy pivot might not be far off.

Bitcoin Performance in May

May picked up the bullish momentum that had started building in late April. After rebounding from the April lows around $74,000, Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory and, on May 22, set a new all-time high (ATH) of $111,980. At that point, BTC’s market capitalization reached an impressive $2.22 trillion.

The entire month was characterized by steady growth. The upward movement was relatively smooth, with no sharp pullbacks or extended corrections — signaling strong buyer demand and growing trust in the asset. In the final days of the month, short-term volatility emerged following a statement from Donald Trump announcing an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, set to take effect on June 4. Despite this, the overall market structure remained bullish. External shocks like this are currently having only short-lived impacts and are not altering the core trend.

Bitcoin (BTC) Chart. Source: Cryptorank

Further confirmation of the strength of the trend and investor confidence came from sustained capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. The ETF flow histogram over the past three months clearly shows growing interest from institutional investors — further reinforcing the ongoing uptrend and helping maintain high price levels.

Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows. Source: The Block

Ethereum Performance in May

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum had shown notable weakness since the beginning of the year. From a January high of $3,700, it had dropped by more than 60%, hitting a yearly low of $1,385 in early April. While it began to recover, ETH lagged behind BTC and by the end of April had only managed to return to its opening levels — closing the month with a slight loss.

In our April review, we noted that despite its underperformance, it was too early to write Ethereum off — its time was still ahead. May proved that point.

While Bitcoin began its ascent right at the start of the month, Ethereum remained in a consolidation phase. Then, on May 8, ETH finally woke up. In just 24 hours, the price surged over 20%, flipping market sentiment. By the end of May, ETH had gained 41%, starting the month at $1,793 and closing at $2,528. From the April low to the May peak, ETH rallied by more than 100%, marking its strongest rebound in quite some time. Its market cap reached $330 billion by month’s end.

Ethereum (ETH) Chart. Source: Cryptorank

Ethereum reasserted itself as a core asset in the crypto market. The strong rally in May restored market participants' confidence in its long-term potential. Institutional interest in ETH also began to show signs of life, with spot Ethereum ETF inflows increasing noticeably in late April and throughout May. While this trend is encouraging when viewed over the last three months, inflows still remain below desired levels.

Spot Ethereum ETF Flows. Source: The Block

However, this could change dramatically. A major potential catalyst lies in the integration of staking mechanisms into spot Ethereum ETFs — an initiative currently being actively pursued by BlackRock. The company is in talks with the SEC, and if approved, this could significantly boost institutional demand and reshape how Ethereum is perceived as an investment asset.

ETH and BlackRock

BlackRock’s growing interest in Ethereum is becoming increasingly evident. On May 19, it was revealed that the asset management giant had purchased $8.65 million worth of ETH via Coinbase. Earlier in the month, BlackRock also met with the SEC’s Crypto Asset Task Force, discussing key issues such as staking and tokenization in the context of crypto ETFs.

Source: https://x.com/rovercrc/status/1924295748796964877

While the SEC still currently considers staking a potential indicator of an investment contract — which could classify ETH as a security — the mere fact that such a meeting took place signals a willingness from the regulator to engage in constructive dialogue. This is especially significant in light of the new SEC leadership installed in 2025, which has shown a more crypto-friendly stance.

As the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock is actively pushing for the inclusion of staking within its Ethereum ETF structure. In May, the firm submitted a revised filing with the SEC proposing to allow in-kind creations and redemptions — a mechanism enabling investors to receive ETF shares directly in ETH. The filing also broached the subject of integrating staking into the ETF, which BlackRock believes would make the product more robust and attractive.

BlackRock’s Head of Digital Assets, Robbie Mitchnick, stated back in March that an Ethereum ETF without staking is “less perfect.” He emphasized that incorporating staking into an ETF isn’t just a matter of regulatory approval or political shifts; it also involves solving a range of complex technical and legal challenges.

Still, if these hurdles can be overcome, staking integration could be a game-changer, turning Ethereum ETFs into more comprehensive investment tools. Staking yield is a fundamental component of ETH’s appeal, and the ability to earn passive income within a regulated ETF could significantly boost institutional interest while redefining ETH’s role as an investable asset.

It’s estimated that including staking could provide an annual yield of approximately 3.2%. For investors seeking passive income and lower volatility, this structure would be far more attractive than simply holding ETH. Additionally, staking requires locking up tokens, thereby reducing the circulating supply — an effect that tends to support price levels over time.

The ongoing conversation around staking within Ethereum ETFs shows that both the crypto industry and regulators are moving toward compromise. Over time, it’s likely that staking will gain approval as part of a broader effort to institutionalize Ethereum. For investors, this would mean access to a regulated vehicle that also participates in ETH’s protocol-level reward system. Such a development could unlock significant capital inflows and elevate Ethereum’s position not just among cryptocurrencies, but also as a competitor to traditional instruments like bonds, mutual funds, and dividend-paying equities. Staking within ETFs isn’t just a feature upgrade — it’s a foundational leap forward for the entire crypto sector.

Given this backdrop, it’s essential to examine ETH’s position relative to the broader market — particularly Bitcoin. Two key metrics provide deeper context here: Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and the ETH/BTC pair. These indicators help assess whether Ethereum’s recent rally is the start of outperformance or just a temporary bounce.

Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D)

Every past bull cycle in the crypto market has followed a familiar pattern: after a strong Bitcoin rally, liquidity begins to flow into altcoins. This phase, commonly referred to as altseason, is when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform BTC by a significant margin.

This effect is driven by investors taking profits in Bitcoin and reallocating to higher-risk, higher-reward assets. Given the lower liquidity of altcoins, even relatively modest capital inflows can trigger rapid price movements. This dynamic has repeated itself throughout crypto history, and it’s clearly reflected in the Bitcoin dominance chart (BTC.D).

At present, BTC.D has reached a key resistance zone between 64.8% and 67.5%. This area aligns with the upper boundary of a long-term triangle formation that’s been developing since 2017. There’s a strong possibility that Bitcoin dominance may begin to reverse from this level.

A potential decline in BTC.D down to the 48–43% range could signal the start of a new altseason, providing altcoins with the momentum to outperform Bitcoin in the coming months. Below is the chart highlighting the potential scenario:

Market Cap BTC Dominance. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC – The Key Indicator of Altseason

Continuing the discussion on capital rotation and liquidity shifting from Bitcoin to altcoins, it's essential to focus on the ETH/BTC chart. This trading pair remains one of the most liquid in the crypto market, making it a reliable real-time indicator of capital redistribution and shifting market sentiment. Typically, when investors start taking profits in BTC, the first destination for that liquidity is ETH. A rising ETH/BTC pair often signals a move into risk-on assets — an early hallmark of an emerging altseason.

Technical Chart

At the moment, ETH/BTC is showing a reaction off a strong historical support zone around 0.0172, the same area that triggered a major uptrend in 2020. However, trading volume remains low, and without a volume increase, it’s difficult to confirm a full trend reversal or the end of the multi-year downtrend.

Since 2022, ETH has been in a steady decline versus BTC, with the downtrend even steepening at various points — highlighting Ethereum’s relative weakness and Bitcoin’s dominance. Currently, the price is testing a key trendline, and how it behaves around this level in the coming weeks will determine whether ETH can mount a recovery and potentially kick off a new altcoin rally. While it's too early to declare a full reversal, early technical signals are beginning to emerge.

Ethereum/Bitcoin Chart. Source: TradingView

Trading Activity & Volume

In May 2025, total spot trading volume on centralized exchanges reached $1.47 trillion, only a slight improvement over April’s $1.28 trillion. Despite localized rallies in certain assets, total volume remained among the lowest in recent months. Several factors contributed to this stagnation:

• Major cryptocurrencies posted steep losses in Q1, which dampened interest among both traders and long-term investors.

• Widespread liquidations earlier in the year led many traders to exit positions or reduce activity.

• A growing number of traders are shifting to decentralized platforms, especially those like Hyperliquid, which offer high liquidity and seamless user experience.

• New reporting requirements in the U.S. and the rollout of MiCA regulations in Europe are putting pressure on centralized exchanges. As a result, many market participants are opting for more anonymous, less regulated platforms — especially for short-term trades.

Spot Trading Volume on CEX. Source: The Block

In May 2025, decentralized exchanges saw $410 billion in trading volume, marking the second-highest month in the last 12 months — trailing only January’s record tied to the launch of Trump’s token.

The biggest contributor was PancakeSwap, which alone accounted for $171 billion in trading volume. A large share of that came from the ZKJ token. Interestingly, despite the token’s lack of price appreciation, it drew significant trading interest — likely driven by speculation around upcoming announcements or major developments. This kind of activity often precedes key news or product launches and is worth watching closely.

The rise in DEX volume reflects a continuing trend of traders migrating to decentralized platforms. Factors driving this shift include improved user experience, lower fees, and faster transaction speeds. These substantial volumes highlight the increasing importance of DEXs within the broader crypto ecosystem.

Spot Trading Volume on DEX. Source: The Block

Top Gainers & Losers

May didn’t produce a clear sector-wide leader. Price action in the top 100 assets on CoinMarketCap was selective, rather than broad-based. Among the top gainers were:

• SPX6900 (+73.6%)

• Hyperliquid (+63.7%)

• Aave (+38.8%)

• Zcash (+38.6%)

On the losing side:

• Sonic (−28.3%)

• Pyth Network (−21.5%)

• Vaulta (−21.4%)

Each token had individual catalysts for its performance — positive or negative — highlighting the non-systemic nature of May's market movement. Trends this month were primarily driven by project-specific narratives, rather than broad macro or sector-wide momentum.

Google Trends Analysis

Since April, we’ve been regularly tracking crypto-related trends on Google Trends, highlighting the most frequently searched projects. This data provides valuable insight into which coins and sectors are capturing the most user interest, and where market participants are becoming emotionally engaged.

Google Trends acts as an early indicator of attention. One notable example from April was FARTCOIN, a viral Solana-based memecoin that repeatedly hit the top of Google search trends. It ultimately became the second-best performing token of the month, surging over 160%. In May, it continued to climb, adding 78% from its monthly low to high — though it sharply corrected in the final days, reminding us of the inherent risks in the meme sector.

Another trend leader in April was Hyperliquid, which also ended May among the top gainers, closing the month with a +63% gain.

In May, Google Trends showed a surge of interest in major cryptocurrencies such as ETH, BNB, and BCH, all of which posted positive monthly performance. Ethereum even emerged as one of the month’s top gainers. Unlike memecoins — which tend to spike in search trends and price volatility — rising interest in ETH or BCH suggests a rotation of larger capital into more established assets, as discussed earlier.

Overall, Google Trends is starting to prove its value as a supplementary indicator. While we’re still compiling long-term statistics, early patterns and positive signals are already emerging. Stay up to date with trending tokens and market narratives via our social media (X, Telegram, Discord, Facebook), where we post real-time updates and insights.

Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas

In the final days of May, Las Vegas became the epicenter of the global crypto community as it hosted Bitcoin 2025, a major conference that drew industry leaders, policymakers, and influencers from around the world. Far from being just another gathering of crypto enthusiasts, the event served as a clear sign of growing political and economic recognition of digital assets.

The stage featured overwhelmingly pro-Bitcoin statements from high-profile figures including U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Donald Trump Jr., Arthur Hayes, and others. Even longtime crypto skeptic Peter Schiff acknowledged Bitcoin’s growing impact, joking that he may have done more for its adoption than anyone else.

Key topics included:

• The use of BTC in national strategic reserves

• The potential of crypto-based revenue for state budgets

• Tax cuts tied to crypto-friendly policies

• Wild predictions like Bitcoin reaching $1 million

The overarching takeaway: Bitcoin has moved far beyond tech circles. It’s now a relevant part of the global political and economic conversation. Leaders from the U.S. to Pakistan are discussing BTC in terms of national reserves, and even vocal critics are starting to acknowledge its influence — albeit reluctantly.

The message was unified and clear: Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset — it’s a force shaping the global financial future.

Market Sentiment in May

Market sentiment is a key leading indicator. Cycles of fear are typically followed by periods of greed and euphoria, and vice versa. After an extended period of pessimism earlier in the year, the market had returned to neutral territory by late April. In May, sentiment shifted predominantly into the greed zone.

Only in the final days of May — amid a mild correction — did the Fear & Greed Index drop back to 55, signaling a return to neutral. This level typically reflects uncertainty and cautious optimism, with traders waiting for a stronger signal before committing.

Importantly, this neutral reading follows a gradual recovery from extreme fear, through depression and apathy. This sets a healthier foundation for sustainable growth. A return to greed will likely come more easily now, and the next logical phase is euphoria — though the market isn’t quite ready for that yet. It needs time to consolidate around current price levels.

This correction, rather than a red flag, is likely healthy and even necessary. A rapid shift from fear to euphoria could result in market overheating and harsher pullbacks. In this light, the current pause is not a cause for panic, but rather a consolidation phase before the next leg up.

Fear and greed index. Source: CoinMarketCap

Conclusion

May 2025 marked a true turning point for the crypto market — validating a scenario that just a month ago felt like an optimistic bet. This was the month when the market not only continued its recovery but reignited a full-on bullish narrative. Bitcoin defied seasonal patterns to set a new all-time high of $111,980 andEthereum delivered an explosive rebound, regaining investor confidence after months of weakness.

On the macro side, the Federal Reserve’s neutral stance gave investors breathing room. Institutional interest in BTC and ETH continues to grow, with BlackRock lobbying heavily for staking integration into Ethereum ETFs — a strong signal of shifting regulatory winds.

The onset of altseason may be closer than it appears:

• ETH/BTC has bounced from a critical support level (0.017)

• BTC dominance (BTC.D) is testing a major resistance zone (64–67%). If Bitcoin stabilizes, we could see capital rotation into altcoins.

The market is not overheated — the Fear & Greed Index remains neutral, and trading volumes are moderate. This creates a solid base for potential continuation.

The main catalyst in June will be the Fed meeting on the 18th. Any dovish shift — or even a hint at a future rate cut — could trigger the next bullish impulse. Key levels to watch:

• BTC holding above $97,900–$102,700 will preserve the bullish market structure

• ETH/BTC breaking and sustaining above key trendlines would confirm capital rotation into altcoins

May proved the market has moved beyond skepticism and is preparing for its next phase. Now, it’s all about confirming trend strength as we head into summer — a season that’s historically been challenging. Catalysts like ETH ETF developments and macroeconomic signals may drive the next major move.

​​SimpleSwap reminds you that this article is provided for informational purposes only and does not provide investment advice. All purchases and cryptocurrency investments are your own responsibility.