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Crypto Ran Out of Panic Before It Ran Out of Reasons to Panic

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Summary

Samuel Msiska frames the finding as a pair of near-identical shocks with opposite responses.

Over 36 hours on 4-5 February, Bitcoin fell 17.5% and stablecoin inflows on simpleswap.io ran 600% above their weekly average in a single day.

“The first drawdown of a cycle is news, and people act on news. The third one of comparable size is weather.”

Key Takeaways

  • February: Bitcoin −17.5%, stablecoin inflows 600% above average in a single day.
  • June: Bitcoin −15.7%, the same flows 9% below average.
  • The Fear & Greed Index printed 5 in February, its lowest reading on record.
  • Stablecoin flow correlation with Bitcoin flipped from −0.54 in Q1 to +0.18 from April to June.
  • Spot volume on top exchanges fell from about $9.5 trillion to $4.65 trillion half on half.
  • Swap flows capture behaviour that order books do not.

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