Bitcoin Halving 2020
In every 210K mined blocks a planned (programmed) event takes place. This event is called halving. It is a regular reduction of miners’ fee (reward) for a produced block. Bitcoin creator put these halvings in software to keep inflation in check. Most commonly one block is being mined in 9 minutes and 20 seconds. According to this, halving occurs every four years. The Bitcoin network had two halvings: first in 2012 and then in 2016. If we look back and remember how much coins miners could earn in the early history of Bitcoin, it was 50 BTC for one block. Later on, after the first halving, the fee was equal to 25 BTC and the same happened four years after, then the reward was cut down to 12.5 BTC. The next (third) halving may be expected in May 2020. The payoff then will be reduced to 6.25 BTC. This will actually continue till there’s no award left (this will approximately happen in 2140).
So why is there a need for halving? If coins are produced very fast or the amount of emitted BTC is not limited, there will be so many Bitcoins in circulation that they will have limited value. Vitalik Buterin once said in his interview with Bitcoin Magazine: «The main reason why this is done is to keep inflation under control.»
What will happen with BTC price after Bitcoin halving?
Like any other cryptocurrency price prediction, the Bitcoin price prediction is always hard to make, so we can just guess looking at a combination of factors. Opinions are divided as follows: some think that the BTC price will go up and others think nothing will generally change and the price will stay the same.
There are also skeptics that see the halving as bad luck. They believe that if even 10 percent of miners quit, it might scare away the investors and make them move out their assets. As a result, the Bitcoin price will go down.
After the first Bitcoin halving the BTC price grew almost two hundredfold, the second time it grew sevenfold. Both times BTC had increased volatility. But no one can guarantee the same events nowadays.
As far as we can see from the previous halvings, they had the same dynamics: the Bitcoin price grew up. This gives some people hope that it will repeat after the next BTC halving in May 2020.
What are people’s opinions and predictions regarding the next Bitcoin halving? Let’s have a look.
The CEO of Pantera Capital Dan Morehead predicts the rise of BTC after the coming halving: “It’s right on the trend line, and I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year, we hit that, and then if you just extrapolate that line out for another year, it’s $122,000 per Bitcoin and in one more year $356,000.”
Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors posted a part of the report regarding crypto outlook 2020. Here what is said regarding the BTC price in that report: “For 2020, we see several positive convergences that enhance the use case and also the economic model for crypto and Bitcoin – thus, we believe Bitcoin and crypto total return should exceed that of 2019. In other words, we see strong probability that Bitcoin gains >100% in 2020.”
Bobby Lee (co-founder and CEO of BTC China) also expressed his opinion via twit saying: “After next #BlockRewardHalving in Spring of 2020, new #Bitcoin output will drop again, to just 900 BTC/day. I predict #HashPower will continue to grow, with ever higher amounts of investment in mining (electricity costs). If that amount reaches $54m/day, we‘ll have $BTC at $60k.”
Jason A. Williams had an “unpopular opinion”: “Unpopular Opinion – Bitcoin halving in May 2020 won’t do anything to the price. It will be a non-event.”
John McAfee is insanely positive as usual when speaking about the Bitcoin price prediction: “When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions. I now predict Bitcoin at $1 million by the end of 2020. I will still eat my d*ck if wrong.”
Paolo Ardoino (Bitfinex & Tether Chief Technology Officer) said the following in his interview to U.Today: “The halving is expected to occur next year, and I think it’s reasonable to expect an increase in the price of Bitcoin. I won’t do any price predictions myself and this is not financial or other advice from me or from Bitfinex or Tether, but I don’t see any reason for Bitcoin not hitting $100,000 within the next few years. That would already be an amazing goal for such technology.”
Tone Vays (Financial analyst) is less ambitious. That’s what he thinks: “Technically, everything is in play until end of 2020, after that sub $5,000 is not likely. Worst Case Scenario: prices drop to $5k into the halving, then after halving 70% of miners shut down due to negative revenue, #Bitcoin spirals down in price but then rises from the dead!”
Petros Anagnostou, the founder of Crypto Solutions declares: “My prediction: Bitcoin will reach $12,000 before the end of this year. And will reach a price of $50,000 – $100,000 by the end of 2020.”
To summarize, the forthcoming BTC halving 2020 will be a kind of guarantee that there will be no inflation, and investments will be profitable. At the same time, it is being one of the key factors responsible for the growth of the Bitcoin price. When it comes to miners, they usually feel stressed about it as to keep their income at the same level they will need to invest in new technical equipment. As for those who don’t mine but just buy Bitcoin to keep BTC as a cryptocurrency investment, the BTC halving will barely have any effect on them.
No one can predict what exactly will happen after the upcoming BTC halving. It is always up to you either be on the optimistic side or be one of the doubters.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You are the only one responsible for making investment decisions.